Hospital leaders in other states have resumed pleading with people to take steps to stop the spread as they face overwhelming caseloads and illness among their own workers. What’s ahead for Oregon may be what’s been seen in other parts of the country, where omicron struck earlier. The new forecast comes just before the holidays end, schools resume and the work force thinned by holiday vacations beefs up again. “There may not be a hospital bed for them when they need it.” “There’s no reason to be indoors without a mask around someone who is high risk, such as elderly or immunocompromised,” Graven said. He said Oregonians should still follow covid protocols, such as masking up. The crucial difference, Graven emphasized, is the health impact, with those with vaccinations enduring less severe conditions. The new forecast accounts for the more rapid spread and the Denmark research documenting that the omicron infection rate is the same for vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. That forecast projected 2,000 hospitalizations. The latest estimate of hospitalizations moves closer to the alarming forecast that prompted the governor to put the state on alert.
“Even though the omicron variant appears to cause a lower overall rate of severe illness than the previously dominant delta variant, its rapid spread combined with its ability to elude previous immunity will drive an unprecedented number of infections and a corresponding increase in hospitalizations,” Graven said in his statement. In a statement, Graven urged close attention to the forecast. At that rate, the state wouldn’t hit the governor’s goal for another two months – long after the wave of omicron has come and gone under the latest forecast.Īs of Friday, about one in three Oregonians has been boosted. In his forecast, Graven noted that Oregon has been averaging about 12,000 booster shots a day. However, he said, it has proven valuable in keeping people from getting so sick they are hospitalized or even die. Graven’s forecast said research in Denmark showed that the booster was only about 50% effective at preventing an omicron infection. She imposed no new restrictions but instead set an ambitious goal to get 1 million more Oregonians boosted with a third shot by the end of January. Kate Brown in mid-December warned the state of the coming surge. About 65% of Oregonians have completed their original vaccination series.
Hospitals in the East are reporting three unvaccinated people hospitalized for every vaccinated person admitted. But the forecast indicates hundreds of new Covid patients are likely to require hospitalization in a surge that crests in late January.
In an interview, Graven noted the state has about 4,700 hospital beds and nearly all are already full. The total number of beds available Friday for all adult care in Oregon hospitals stood at 297. The Oregon Health Authority reported that hospitalizations from the coronavirus have ticked up again, with 445 people hospitalized as of Friday for Covid, increasing by 36 in just two days. And that put such a strain on hospitals they recruited out-of-state nurses and turned to the Oregon National Guard for help. That total dwarfs the peak Oregon saw in September, with 1,187 people hospitalized. He now projects the omicron variant will make about 1,650 Oregonians so sick they will need hospital treatment. Peter Graven, director of OHSU’s Office of Advanced Analytics, reversed course from a more hopeful report issued just last week. Oregon goes into the new year with the omicron variant of covid spreading faster than expected, setting the stage for record hospitalizations through January, according to the latest forecast from Oregon Health & Science University.
Oregon Health & Science University issued a new forecast showing climbing hospitalizations for Covid.
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